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Is a US recession more likely than you think?

L&G

Here's an alternative approach to estimating recession probabilities: beige theorem.
Two recent events have inspired my latest blog post – the triggering of the Sahm rule and the release of the September Beige Book. As I update my latest Beige Book sentiment score, and using that in combination with assessing changes in the US unemployment rate, I’ve been trying to answer two questions:

What do the data readings imply for the probability of a US recession?
How does that compare with consensus?

L&G

Thursday 24th October 2024

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By downloading content from this page, you agree for the cio investment club to share your contact details with L&G so they can add you to their marketing contact list. The views and opinions expressed here are those of L&G and may not represent the views of the cio investment club.

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