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Muted, positive returns for fixed income in an eventful quarter

Federated Hermes

De-escalation of the conflict in Iran and the Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership change grabbed the headlines in Q2. Oil prices fell sharply as the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), extending the at-times shaky cease fire and agreeing to 60 days of negotiations. This credible off-ramp from the conflict allowed Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures prices to each fall approximately 35% from peak to trough. Given the strong link between oil prices and Treasury yields since the start of the conflict, one might assume Treasury yields fell too over the quarter. Not so fast.

Federated Hermes

Monday 27th July 2026

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